Looking at the worst-case scenario, now that it seems to have arrived in Cleveland!
Jack Duffin
VIDEO: Deshaun Watson Dissappoints For Brown's In Loss
The worse possible outcome of theDeshaun Watson sage is unfolding for Cleveland where a once great quarterback is floundering and performing like a below average player.
This is an article I never thought would need to write, let alone eight games into his career with theteam but his play has been poor and people are now asking when can the team get out of the deal and him off the books.
Not everything that went wrong against the Steelers was on him but with average quarterback play it should have been an easy win based on how the defensive players performed.
They aren't going to move him during the 2023 season for those people asking me as no team is going to want to take on all the guaranteed money on now.
The Original Deal
Before we get into the outs in the contract, here is the deal he signed. If a team was signing him to an extension then he would likely have got the first three years of the contract guaranteed, where he was effectively a free agent he followed players like Cousins and Brady securing a fully guaranteed deal. This gave him extra protection in year four and five of the deal.
Cash Versus Cap
Usually in most of my pieces I will talk about why it is important to follow the cash in the deal, where Watson is paid $46m a year throughout. When you are trying to get out of a bad deal this early, the salary cap numbers are the biggest part of the equation.
2024 Cut
If they finish the 2023 season and decide they will cut him, it would be with a post June 1st cut the salary cap implications would be$155,977,000 of dead cap in 2024 so this isn't happening. There would then be a dead cap charge of $44,938,000 in 2025.
2024 Trade
If they were to trade him to another team they would be left with a dead cap of$62,915,000 which is workable but what team is going to take on a fully guaranteed deal of $46m in 2024, 2025 and 2026.
You can't do a post June 1st trade in the same way as a cut, this is purely based on the date the trade is made.
2024 Restructure
So he is on the 2024 team, even if he is the backup he will be here, which probably means they willrestructure his deal again as this will give them more flexibility for the 2024 season and beyond.
This doesn't make him any harder/easier to cut in the future, it is just about creating the flexibility to do it when the time comes.
A restructure isn't a pay cut or a change in the amount a player is paid, it is just a manipulation of the salary cap.This is pretty standard language in Browns players contracts for the team to do this without any need to agree anything with the player.
Dorian Thompson-Robinson
When the Browns drafted DTR many where shocked they would take a quarterback but it reminded me the Eagles drafting Jalen Hurts and people lambasted Howie Rosemanafter he had just paid Carson Wentz. That picks likely helped save his career with the Eagles, maybe the Brownsknew there was a riskand their Watsoninsurance already.
Considering Jimmy Haslam is paying over $50m extra a year on this roster compared to the league average, if DTR can just produce league average play then they are capable of winning games andmakingthe playoffs, they might just be caught lacking in the gauntlet that is the AFC playoffs but this team is good enough to compete now and in the next few years.
I don't think we see a suspension for Watson for a push on an official it is likely only a fine. Maybe the bye is the earliest we would see a switch a quarterback because Kevin Stefanski doesn't have time on his side and if Watson loses the locker room with more bad performances they will have toconsider a change.
Kevin Stefanski
With Watson's failure so far his seat is hotter than ever, since you can't get out of the Watson contract in 2024 then bringing in a new head coach who feels they can do the job will be something that will no doubt be discussed unless they can find a solution in DTR that can convince ownership to stay the course with Stefanski.
Andrew Berry
He isn't likely to be moved this offseason, he has done a fantastic job of adding talent to the roster even if Watson is a miss. The roster is so heavily invested that no high calibre general manager candidate will likely want the job. With so much money guaranteed the 2024 Browns is going to look a lot like the 2023 Browns in terms of players across the roster, so I expect to see him here another year of Andrew Berry regardless of Stefanski's fate.
2025 Cut
If they were to post June 1st cut him after the 2024 season he would have a dead cap charge of$109,977,000 if they had done the restructure as I predicted then it would be $118,935,000.
These are just the charges for 2025 dead cap, there would be additional money in the 2026 salary cap as well. With a restructure the 2026 dead cap would be $53,835,000.
2025 Reworked Deal & Cut
They could look to come to an agreement withWatson to rework the final two years of his deal into one year worth $92m in 2025 and then spread the charges out to allow for an easier post June 1st cut.
This would mean a dead cap in 2025 worth$46,339,000 and then a 2026 dead cap of $126,431,000.
This is more manageable than the scenarios before as the bigger hit is in 2026 rather than the short term but that number is still so big it seems hard for them to swallow it.
2025 Trade
They could go the reworked deal route and find a trade partner who is willing to pay him $10m a year for 2025 and 2026 to see what they have got and if they can turn him around but this would be hard as a deal would have to happen after June 1st and no team is going to wait that long to sort out their quarterback situation. Maybe an injury could occur, but any trade seems unlikely outside of a final year of the deal.
Sitting Watson
The most likely outcome for the 2024 & 2025 season if they don't want Watson would be to have him sit as the backup for the team and continue being paid. If he messes up off the field and faces a suspension for something not known to the team then they could void his guarantees and walk away but this isn't something you can bank on.
It is easier to burn the 53rd roster spot and make him inactive every week or make him the backup quarterback than make an early cut and the impact to the salary cap that comes with that.
2025 Restructure
This might lead to a 2025 restructure as well if they want to maximise flexibility around DTR or whoever is the quarterback for this season. The extra money Jimmy is paying goes to Watson while the rest of the team pushes on to try and compete. They would still have an above average costing team with the Watson money put to one side to continue paying him. It comes down to if Haslam is willing to keep investing record levels to a Watson-less team.
2026 Cut
When Watson enters the final year of his deal they could then post June 1st cut him the numbers would really depend on how many restructures they have done.
No restructure:
2026 Dead -$63,977,000
2027 Dead -$8,984,000
Onerestructure:
2026 Dead -$72,935,000
2027 Dead -$26,900,000
Tworestructures:
2026 Dead - $81,884,000
2027 Dead - $53,747,000
The restructures create more salary cap space in the past years so even though the numbers are bigger here, the restructures make sense even if Watson continues to struggle. A dollar in 2027 is much less on the salary cap than it is in 2024 due to the continuing rise in NFL revenues.
2026 Restructure & Cut
They could decide to restructure again and then cut him, this would allow them to push the dead cap charges as far into the future as possible:
2026 Dead - $46,124,000
2027 Dead -$89,507,000
2026 Restructure & Trade
They could find a team that is willing to trade for him at this stage and take him on, maybe paying $10m of his salary for the 2026 season as a low cost bridge to see what he has got. Maybe a team that has a coach who has worked with Watson before.
2026 Dead - $44,824,000
2026 New Team - $10,000,000
2027 Dead -$80,807,000
Watson Here To Stay
If this goes as badly as it could it is highly likely that Watson is here to staythroughthe 2025 season either as the starter or the backup before they can get rid of him.
If this team was bad they could make the move earlier and go into a rebuild but with the high level of talent around the roster it seems that they will just keep him around as to not ruin their salary cap situation. They can sustain a roster that is incredibly expensive as long as ownership agrees to keep their record level of cash investment going.
The questions will come down to can DTR prove he is the answer at quarterback if they bench Watson, if not can they find a cheap option to come in and play, likely via the draft. Can Kevin Stefanski survive this or will a new head coach be appointed. Can Watson turn it around, while it has been bad, eight games doesn't have to define the next few years.
Conclusion
The way I would play this out:
Give Watson until the bye week to try and get it together and hopefully turn his performances around.
If that doesn't work giveThompson-Robinson until the end of the season to see if he can produce with Stefanski.
If that fails then Stefanski has to be shown the door and you bring in a new head coach for the 2024 season to try and salvage Watson's career.
